Jon Karolczak

Cohort Analysis

A worked example of growth-stage SaaS analytics across retention, activation, LTV, sales performance, and churn risk.

This dashboard uses a synthetic dataset for a fictional B2B workflow automation company. The dataset covers 24 months of activity across 3,000 customers in three segments: SMB, Mid-Market, and Enterprise.

1,973
$11.31M
8.1%
2.8%
$1.56M

What does retention look like?

SMB average retention crosses below 50% at month 14. Mid-Market lands at 56% at month 24. Enterprise stays above 70% through the full 24-month data window. The shape is what we would expect based on client size: SMB churns fast, Mid-Market less so, Enterprise is sticky.

Cohort0123456789101112131415161718192021222324
2024-031001009692858277756966636259595954515149464541413938
2024-0410010097938683797775727168676363605351494747464441
2024-05100100989492898581797673726967666258575653515147
2024-061001009592848078726765636058565553494847434241
2024-0710010093918883757167666665616055535150484644
2024-08100100918886847878737069666360575654504944
2024-091001009996868177737164626261575454535151
2024-1010010098959286827976737169686760565146
2024-11100100999792898782807978747370666563
2024-121001009889878478787470646157545148
2025-0110010096908784797471646161595753
2025-02100100959085858280747069656463
2025-031001009694928481807868666058
2025-0410010096949189838076727169
2025-05100100959188868176746866
2025-061001009592878278787573
2025-0710010096948785828074
2025-08100100959085807470
2025-091001009795938987
2025-1010010097898683
2025-11100100948784
2025-121001009490
2026-0110010097
2026-02100100
2026-03100
Retention %
0 — 100
Average retention curve by segment

Diagnose the SMB drop between months 6 and 14 with a churn-reason analysis or exit interviews of recently-churned SMB customers.

Where does the activation funnel break?

Out of 3,000 signups, only 242 activate (8.1%). The steepest single-stage drop is workflow built → activated, where only 35% of customers who built a workflow ever used it in a way that predicted retention. Earlier drop-offs are typical for B2B SaaS; the workflow-to-activation cliff is the real friction point and where the product team should focus.

Overall funnel
Signed Up
3,000
Account Setup
2,499
83%
Admin Invited
1,607
64%
Workflow Built
698
43%
Activated
242
35%
Stage-to-stage conversion by segment
Signup → Setup
Setup → Admin
Admin → Workflow
Workflow → Activated

Run user research or session replays on the workflow-to-activation gap to identify what blocks customers from moving past their first workflow into repeated, scheduled use.

Are the segments economically healthy?

LTV (lifetime value) is the total revenue a customer pays over their tenure. CAC (customer acquisition cost) is what it costs to acquire that customer. As a rule of thumb, LTV should be at least 3× CAC to be economically viable. All three segments clear that bar, and Enterprise economics are roughly 475× larger than SMB — the reason every CS dollar disproportionately goes there next quarter.

SegmentLTVCACLTV / CACMonthly churn
Enterprise
$1.56M$25,00062.5×1.17%
Mid-Market
$58.6K$4,00014.7×2.69%
SMB
$3.3K$4008.2×4.66%
LTV / CAC ratio (3× healthy threshold)

Reweight new-business spend toward Enterprise. Each Enterprise customer delivers ~475× the LTV of an SMB customer, so even small increases in Enterprise acquisition meaningfully impact revenue.

How are reps performing this quarter?

Seven of ten reps cleared quota. Allison Hill and Noah Rhodes (both Enterprise) booked over 5× their target. Three SMB reps finished below 100%: Abigail Shaffer (95%), Connie Lawrence (94%), Gina Moore (90%). The Enterprise outperformance is partly a windfall from two large deals; the SMB underperformance is more interesting because it's spread across three reps.

Quarter: 2026-01-01 to 2026-04-01
Enterprise
Mid-Market
SMB

Audit SMB territory assignments and pipeline coverage to determine whether the underperformance is structural (territory mix) or top-of-funnel (lead volume).

Who's most at risk of churning?

Of 1,973 active customers, 157 sit in the high or severe risk bands and 43 are in the severe band. The risk score is a 0–100 composite of four equal-weighted components: login dormancy, open tickets, MRR contraction, and NPS. It's a hand-tuned heuristic, not a machine-learning model — interpretable, defensible, and easy for a CS rep to act on.

Risk score distribution — 1,973 active customers
Top 20 at-risk customers — call list for Customer Success
CompanySegmentDays idleTicketsMRR Δ %NPSRisk
Abbott Inc
SMB
505-17.9%0100
Sanchez PLC
SMB
254-18.7%195
Beck-Banks
Mid-Market
314-17.0%595
Swanson Group
Enterprise
444-17.7%695
Sanchez, Mullins and Moreno
SMB
584-21.6%695
Webb-Baker
SMB
254-18.3%095
Sanchez-Carey
Mid-Market
574-15.6%195
Brooks, Hughes and Miller
Mid-Market
543-21.5%390
Burgess-Lewis
Mid-Market
523-16.5%490
Gay LLC
Mid-Market
543-20.9%090
Taylor-Love
SMB
433-22.6%690
Wood PLC
SMB
235-8.1%190
Jimenez-Jimenez
Mid-Market
525-11.1%290
Sims-Kirby
SMB
383-21.4%090
King-Jensen
Mid-Market
435-7.5%190
Myers and Sons
SMB
495-9.9%490
Thompson-Murray
Mid-Market
463-23.0%190
Carson LLC
Mid-Market
473-15.6%390
Fisher, Zuniga and Torres
SMB
423-19.9%190
Moore, Kirby and Scott
SMB
363-18.5%590

Customer Success to call all 43 severe-risk customers within the next 14 days, starting with the top 20 in the leaderboard. Reps should log the churn-reason cited by each customer so the heuristic can be refined over time.